Japan H1'24 Sees Weak Volumes but Strong Prices

During H1'24 (YTD to Jun'24), Japan witnessed a 15% y/y drop in volumes, averaging 19mmcf/month while pricing rose by 17% y/y to US$567/mcf for the same period. Volumes are down on the back of general falling demand trends in Asia with weaker semiconductor demand. Last year, we had seen a trend of US volumes being replaced by Qatari volumes as US production fell but with better market dynamics during 2024 given relatively consistent BLM production with no major planned downtime, the US has been able to supply higher volumes to Japan with YTD volumes averaging 9mmcf/m (-4% y/y). Pricing has remained high, likely due to higher transport costs, at US$646/mcf (+20% y/y). Qatar's volumes are down 21% YTD to 10mmcf/m with monthly pricing averaging US$497/mcf (+11% y/y).

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