AKAP Energy Featured in Reuters on Qatar Helium Disruption

The mainstream press is catching on to impact of the helium disruption. AKAP Energy’s analysis was recently referenced by Reuters and Politico in their exclusive coverage on disruption in the helium market due to the US-Iran conflict.

Helium spot prices have surged since Qatar halted LNG production last week, as buyers scramble for supply. We believe that sustained disruptions will push up helium prices significantly as spot prices during the last shortage shot up by ~5x the market prices at the time, to above US$2,000/mcf. Companies like Iwatani in Japan are managing to maintain supply through US sources and strategic stockpiles, but industrial gas giants heavily reliant on Qatari helium are facing immediate pressure. Reuters highlights that producers outside the region could benefit, with Exxon Mobil, North American Helium seeing stronger demand while companies such as Helix Exploration and Blue Star Helium/Helium One Global benefiting from spot sales after their recent production startups.

Politico also comments on disruption and timelines for brining helium production back onstream. The focus of that article is the inflation caused by the disruption and the major industries that will be affected due to the short term squeeze.

Reuters Article:

March 12 (Reuters) - Disruptions to Qatar's natural gas processing from the Iran war have driven helium prices sharply higher, exposing the fragility of a small but critical market that supports industries from semiconductors to medical imaging.

Helium spot prices have doubled since the Middle East crisis began, according to Phil Kornbluth, ?president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting, as buyers scramble to secure supply.

State energy giant QatarEnergy, the world's second-largest LNG exporter, announced a production halt at its 77 ?million tons per annum (mtpa) facility last week and declared force majeure on LNG shipments, amid the conflict.

Because helium is extracted as a byproduct of natural gas processing, any disruption to LNG output directly cuts helium supply.

Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times last week that it would take "weeks to months" for deliveries to return to normal even if the conflict ended immediately.

Qatar is a pivotal ?supplier rather than a marginal one.

Data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows the country produced about 63 million cubic meters of helium in 2025, out of ?roughly 190 million cubic meters globally, accounting for close to one-third of world supply.

Qatar contributes a major share of global helium supply around 63 million cubic feet in 2025 making it the largest producer outside the U.S.

"If those conditions (supply disruption) persist, the market is ?effectively missing about 5.2 million cubic meters of helium per month," said Aleksandr Romanenko, CEO of market research firm IndexBox.

The disruption is reverberating through a market with little ?spare production capacity and limited storage, leaving buyers with few short-term alternatives.

Japan's top helium supplier Iwatani (8088.T), opens new tab said it had so far maintained stable supply to customers including semiconductor ?manufacturers, partly because it also sources helium from the United States and maintains stockpiles in both Japan and the U.S.

A MARKET BUILT ON CONTRACTS, NOT TRANSPARENCY

Helium markets operate very differently from most commodities.

Most supply is sold through long-term contracts rather than a transparent spot market, meaning price signals often emerge slowly even as supply tightens.

That opacity makes price discovery difficult, but signs of tightening supply have ?already begun to emerge.

"Early indications show about 50% spot price increases already," said Anish Kapadia, CEO of market research firm AKAP Energy.

"In a sustained disruption, prices could ?rise sharply and potentially retest past shortage peaks of more than $2,000 per thousand cubic feet."

Romanenko said a 30-day disruption could lift delivered helium prices by 10% to 20%, while a 60-to-90-day outage ?could push ?prices higher by 25% to 50%, particularly for buyers without long-term supply contracts.

AKAP Energy warns helium prices could exceed $2,000 per mcf if disruptions persist.

Helium's physical properties add another constraint. The gas is typically shipped in liquid form and gradually evaporates during transport.

"It's a commodity, but it also has a shelf life," said Chris Bakker, CEO of helium developer Avanti (AVN.V), opens new tab.

"So when you liquefy it, and that's how they tend to ship it worldwide, you've got notionally 45 days to get it to the end-user."

CRITICAL INDUSTRIES FIRST IN LINE

If supply tightens further, suppliers typically prioritise key sectors when allocating volumes ?during force majeure events.

Kornbluth said industries such ?as medical MRI systems and rocket ships would ?probably get 100% of their needs, while semiconductor manufacturers might receive 95%.

Lower-priority uses, including welding, diving equipment and party balloons, would likely face deeper cuts.

Last week, South Korea's ruling party lawmaker Kim Young-bae warned the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could disrupt supplies of ?key semiconductor manufacturing materials, giving helium as one example.

The hierarchy reflects helium's role in technologies where substitutes are limited.

Industrial gas ?companies sourcing helium from Qatar, ?including Air Liquide, Linde (LIN.DE), opens new tab and Air Products and Chemicals (APD.N), opens new tab, are among those most exposed to the supply shock, said Kapadia.

Air Products said it was taking steps to ensure continuity of supply but did not give further details.

Linde declined to comment, while Air Liquide said it relied on multiple sources in different continents and on its storage cavern in Europe.

Iwatani Japan is ?also exposed, ?Kornbluth and Bakker said.

Producers outside the region could benefit if disruptions persist.

Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), opens new tab is the largest helium ?producer outside Qatar, while Canada-based North American Helium and smaller developers such as Helix Exploration (HEXH.L), opens new tab and Blue Star Helium (BNL.AX), opens new tab could see stronger demand, Kapadia added.

Link to the Article

Politico Article:

The war with Iran is driving up more than gasoline prices. It is beginning to hit semiconductors, medical imaging, backyard gardens and even children’s party balloons.

While much of the world is focused on how Iran’s essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz is damaging global energy markets, other key industries risk getting hit by similar price inflation. That’s because Hormuz is also a major shipping route for helium and fertilizer, which both affect a wide sector of the economy and are now experiencing price spikes as ships bottleneck on both sides of the strait.

“The longer it goes on, the more serious it’s going to get,” said Rich Gottwald, CEO of the Compressed Gas Association.

The expected price increases come as the Trump administration attempts to assuage voters’ concerns over cost-of-living, and Republicans worry that the war’s ripple effects will hamstring their prospects in November.

Iran has now effectively blocked ships from crossing the strait, through which 20 percent of the world’s daily oil and natural gas supply travels, inflicting pain on global energy markets by driving the price of crude to roughly $100 a barrel. Iran’s new leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, indicated Thursday that won’t change soon, pledging that “the lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must also continue to be used.”

About a third of both the global helium and fertilizer supply passes through Hormuz. Half of the global supply of urea – a nitrogen-based fertilizer– and almost a third of the ammonia supply run through the straits, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Prices are already spiking since global supplies are taking a hit right as many agricultural producers are beginning their Spring plants. Urea prices have jumped 30 percent since the Trump administration began bombing Iran, according to the Fertilizer Institute.

Meanwhile, helium spot prices have doubled since the war began, said Anish Kapadia, CEO of market research firm AKAP Energy. Qatar’s state-run energy firm halted liquified natural gas production in the first days of the war and it is estimated it will take months to get it back up and running. The nation is a major producer of helium, which is a byproduct of liquefied natural gas production.

The Trump administration is beginning to acknowledge the downstream effects. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on Friday said “the president is very aware of these challenges and these issues” and promised relief for farmers was coming soon.

“We are very close to having an announcement on some solutions, on what that looks like. We’re looking at every potential avenue to keep the fertilizer costs down as these farmers are going into planting season.”

A White House spokesperson declined to answer questions about the impact on the helium market, but acknowledged a plan for the agricultural industry and suggested the president has lowered such input costs.

“President Trump has stood up for our farmers more than anyone, including by lowering input costs, establishing Farmer Bridge Assistant payments, negotiating fairer trade deals, ending the death tax, and more,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement. “As the President said, these impacts are temporary, and the best is yet to come for our great farmers.”

Helium pressure builds

Semiconductor manufacturers heavily rely on helium to prevent certain chemical reactions in production, Gottwald said. MRIs also need helium to cool the magnets the machines need to function. Welding is also heavily reliant on helium. Meanwhile, party balloons account for about 10 to 20 percent of the market.

Interruptions or price spikes to semiconductor manufacturing could hit global markets for everything from computers to smartphones to vehicles to medical equipment.

“A lot of the world doesn’t run without semiconductors and you can’t make semiconductors without helium, period,” Gottwald said. “That will probably add pressure from a political perspective from all different countries around the world.”

The losses are already beginning to mount.

Pressure on the helium market won’t deflate for months because Qatar’s natural gas production facilities were damaged in the fighting, said Anish Kapadia, CEO of market research firm AKAP Energy. After the strait is reopened, he said, it would then take a while to put back into place specialized transportation containers, which are chilled to a temperature close to zero Kelvin, roughly negative-460 degrees Fahrenheit. So, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen today, it would take two months for the market to return to normal, he said.

“It’s absolutely massive,” he said. “On top of that, helium is notoriously hard to store, so unlike oil or natural gas, where you have large stores that you can then draw on in times of shortage, storage is very limited.”

The U.S. is the world’s leading supplier of helium, followed by Qatar. But, like any other commodity sold on the global market, the price of domestic supplies will jump as shortages ripple through the international supply.

On Friday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters that the Trump administration has a plan to reopen the strait but offered no details.

“We have been dealing with it, don’t need to worry about it,” he said.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicted this week that the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the end of the month, though he did not outline any plan as to how that would happen.

A month-long shutdown could mean another 10 to 20 percent increase in prices but not a shortage, said Aleksandr Romanenko, CEO of market research firm IndexBox. If the shutdown lasts for two months, he expects “broader stress” and an increase of 25 to 50 percent.

“If the disruption stretches to three months, I would expect genuine shortages outside the best-buffered regions, especially in parts of Europe and Asia,” which are particularly reliant on Qatar’s supply.

The majority of semiconductor manufacturing takes place in Asia.

Fertilizer spikes could cause ‘record high’ prices

Fertilizer demand in the U.S. is hitting just as the spring planting season begins.

The squeeze is hitting farmers on two fronts, with rising diesel fuel and fertilizer costs, American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall wrote in a letter to Trump this week. He noted that the cost increase could drive inflationary pressure on the U.S. economy while also threatening national security if fertilizer shortages cut production and drastically raised food prices.

“These supply chain shocks are expected to drive already record-high input prices even higher at a time when farm margins are already extremely tight and many farmers are underwater,” he wrote.

While the U.S. produces some types of fertilizer, other countries are heavily reliant on imports, particularly during seasonal demand peaks. For instance, 97 percent of potassium used in the U.S. is imported, as well as 18 percent of nitrogen and 13 percent of phosphate, according to AFBF. The crops that rely heavily on spring fertilizer applications include corn, cotton and wheat.

“We are deeply concerned that failure to act could lead to disruptions to the food supply chain not seen since 2022 when food price inflation reached 40- year highs,” Duvall warned.

Food prices spiked due to similar disruptions to the global fertilizer market in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, since Russia produced about 20 percent of global fertilizer supply. But the product eventually reached the market through a series of workarounds, noted the North Dakota State University Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies this week. What’s more, because the Black Sea region was also a major producer of grain, it caused price spikes to crops that offset some of the farmer’s losses.

This time, without the strait fully open, there are few signs of relief.

“Storage fills, plants shut down, and the product simply does not reach the global market,” the center noted. “This is a harder form of supply disruption with no workaround.”

Link to the Article