The US BLM has seen consistent production since July 2022 with no major outages and total production of ~575mmcf over a period of 9 months. However the BLM is in steady decline of 1-2% per month and has declined by 20% from peak rates in July/August last year to just over 2mmcf/d of helium. The BLM had previously stated that it was expecting a maintenance shutdown in April for 10-14 days, so we will be watching closely for this and also the risk of any extended maintenance due to unforseen issues. We also expect that Exxon's La Barge, Wyoming plant to undergo maintenance this year, which was postponed last year. This could take ~150mmcf of helium off the market over the course of 4-5 weeks or >25% of daily global supply.
Downtime at the BLM in mid-April could cause more Shortages
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